Joe Rogan Experience #1566 — Nicholas Christakis Transcript

Transcript

0:00 the joe rogan experience train by day joe rogan podcast by night all day who stopped drinking altogether That I miss the most. and the current pandemic we're into, that's not a good thing. This is for the week? So I think it's like half and half, and other problems in our society. It cleans your butt so much better than just toilet paper. Say that again?

3:16 So let's talk about this. so we could use the phone data to study social interactions. And so we decided to use the phone We released this app called Hunala, reporting a traffic jam or a cop, and you can exit the highway and avoid that. And people, We did a whole bunch of other stuff, which maybe we'll talk about. and people were so hungry for doing the things they needed to do. And I just wanted to help people understand what was happening

7:42 I mean, if the president didn't have more information than me, work together to repel this threat. I don't know. Yes. I don't know all the details about that. I know it wasn't just the Obama administration. They inherited the pandemic response from the Bush administration. And the CIA has been identifying emergent pandemics as a serious national security threat for a number of decades now, as I actually discuss in the book.

10:05 That's a very, very unfortunate thing that he did because that eroded people's confidence in what he's saying. and he was saying for the general public, you know, you don't have to wear masks. It's not helping you. And he was actually Wearing masks is like driving the speed limit And so we're going to have to grow up and be mature do some things that

12:23 Especially an N95 mask. So even though the virus is very small, much bigger than a water molecule, but still very small, think about how if you had a fire hose at your house and the water was spraying out of the fire hose, and furthermore in the case of coronavirus, one of the big problems is people don't know if they're And you don't really need to use them, those.

14:55 It can do it. And so there is aerosol transmission, and the masks that we use don't necessarily stop that. and simple. There's a great video online that I saw this morning of a guy who held up a lighter and My doctor does not recommend bandanas. I was trying to think of like – well, I was trying to think of sort of general principles that are relevant here.

17:23 And we have to, first of all, accept that. We can say, well, almost everyone can't spread the virus anymore after 14 days. Jamie, what were you talking about earlier? they test you again, they found you. And they say, aha, this person had it before and isn't immune. between antibody levels declining and you're being immune. to develop something called memory immunity

20:56 17 years ago. And one more thing, and that is all different than the question of cross immunity, I'm so glad you said that because on the one hand, this is a bad germ. no necessary reason we're not facing that situation. So you're right. It could have been or all the other things that we know are effective, I don't know the reason for that. No, no, no.

24:40 Yes. but realize that there's no guarantee you know it's like those poor marathon runners that drop It seems to be, and Fauci's talked about this as well, seems to be particularly effective to get vitamin D, for sure. and vitamin D being not just a vitamin but also maybe even possibly mislabeled as a vitamin. I think there's very few people that are actually getting their blood work done.

28:12 And in a way, that's sort of what I'm trying to talk a little bit about with respect to the pandemic as well, And more importantly, this way the virus has forced us to live, which feels so alien and unnatural to us. time in the crucible, and I would hope for better for us. And in terms of crucibles, it's so small. Or smallpox, when the Europeans landed in our continent and they brought with them old world diseases to the new world, smallpox would wipe out Native American populations.

30:54 I'm actually glad that you're going there because one of the things I don't want, I don't want to Most listeners might have a vague memory of hearing about it, but people didn't really And the previous leading killer was, of course, the 1918, the so-called Spanish flu pandemic. emergence of new influenza strains. And there was just a paper published a couple of months ago

33:47 it's devastating, including young people? I have a young friend, he's 28, he got it, So I want listeners to imagine that there are two worlds. 90 of them get mild illness. no right-thinking person should prefer to be in world B than to be in world A. In world A, we should take this disease seriously. Do you see what I'm saying? not know it. You're spreading it to your sexual partners, and then it kills you much later.

38:11 infections have been acquired from people who are asymptomatic. It's different in that it doesn't actually contain the virus, but it boosts your body's ability to fight off the virus. the virus able to elicit an immune response. And then we give you that strain as a shot and you that's another approach. And there are many other approaches, a dozen or so, or nine or 10

41:18 to give you a common cold, but also to express this protein as if you had been infected with COVID Like if we had infected you with a real coronavirus, the real coronavirus, as many people remember from high school biology, the virus can't reproduce on its own. people to get over optimistic either because you know it's my job to be a bit of a downer

43:47 We're not seeing 1% nationwide in terms of people getting the virus and dying. is the fraction of people who have symptoms who go when infected who die and that number is about is certainly not less than half a percent Okay. yeah yeah but that what that means is is that if you're uh if it reduces your risk of death by that fraction. And in the arm that did not get the vaccine, the other 20,000 people, let's say 90 people

47:10 dying uh before and now you have a 0.1 chance of dying 90 percent lower than that because we You know, it's like it stimulates your immune system to make it even better at fighting the virus. use the word vaccine when you mean virus. Right. comorbidity factors they may have had and see if there's anything that would indicate will be effective. But we don't yet know the safety of the vaccine is another thing we don't

50:48 Or do we say, actually, the outcome we really care about is death. Does the virus reduce your which is great, but it had no effect on dying. whether this vaccine, even if it works, reduces, even if it works to reduce your probability of And all of these things are things we will soon learn in the coming year, all I've been thinking about is coronavirus for the last 10 months. I mean, there's just

53:57 they were randomly assigned to the placebo arm uh they clearly should get first dibs on the They have the greatest chance of dying if they get infected. this dilemma very soon, in fact. Because when the the initial of course, if we had 300 million doses, we wouldn't have to make these choices. And so not every pharmacy, you know, your local CVS or Walgreens doesn't have usually this type of refrigeration.

57:01 We need millions of them. But initially, we're not going to have that. I'm pretty sure, is the one that doesn't require quite as cold a refrigeration, which makes the logistics of distribution much easier. body over response to it. What did he receive? but it doesn't appear to lower your risk of death. What would be the difference between was published a few months ago,

1:01:27 Now, how can that be? Yes, it was a large study that was, I think the subjects were not just in England. You need to wait until they're sufficiently sick and then it helps you. which I think is another promising approach to treating this condition. We don't yet have the buddy or something. when he was in the hospital the response was for ayear-old guy to be back on the campaign trail with this rigorous campaign that he was doing four or five days later, pretty damn impressive.

1:05:01 Yeah. I mean, you and I, if you and I were in the hospital with COVID Yeah, hilarious. And in a way you would even say that lies and denial, since they've occurred for thousands of years, whenever there's an outbreak, people have always developed superstitions. But, you know, he was like a snake oil salesman selling it. It wasn't crazy to consider that it would work. I mean,

1:08:13 Yes. He's riffing. And if the public will is to, as I said, have someone who tells you only good news and doesn't tell you bad news, we're going to get that. But I also think the American people And we have, unfortunately, a long road ahead. is going to happen. and distributing it and persuading large numbers of people to get it and so on. And that's going to take time,

1:11:46 spreading. And while we're doing all that other stuff, so either way, I think we get to 2022 when we reach the herd immunity threshold, social, and economic shock. Let's not forget tens of millions of Americans are out of work. Maybe as many as a million. to recover from that. So I think it's 2024 before we really begin to enter the post-pandemic period

1:14:46 Sexual licentiousness goes up. Spending, people start spending money. Risk-taking comes back. think are doing it wrong it seems to me that one of the big problems that people are having with doing things that he specifically told people not to do um this is a problem that people have And there are many components to what you just said. would still be fucked, but it would be less fucked. California is more fucked than Austin,

1:18:31 So just to be clear, the ideal world, I'm not saying that's how government is working, skins by working together to repulse the invader. And in an ideal world, that's what government our leaders, for example, when they appear in public to wear masks. I don't think that a lot So when experts say that shit is going to hit the fan in a few weeks or it's really bad right now, the man on the street goes out,

1:20:58 It looks like nothing has happened. who are not hypocrites, who act according to their prescriptions, Like they really didn't enforce any restrictions at all. national strategy. We need some consistency. We can't have every little town having, you know, But that doesn't mean you can just count on that advantage and do nothing else. And by the fourth line of defense, there are no holes left to penetrate all four layers of Swiss cheese.

1:24:27 And furthermore, this is what happened at the White House. I don't think he was either, honestly, but I have no inside knowledge. So he knows he's got an inner circle that is a little chatty Cathy. Yes. And they also, by the idea that we'll test everyone else that comes in contact with the president. Yes. The fact that our leadership was infected, including even the person holding the nuclear

1:26:53 Yes, I think the data fit with the claim that the president was a super spreader. I have to imagine that Elon Musk has good testing. Yes, I believe. I'm 99% sure because he was actually then questioning the effectiveness of but you can't infect anyone else. But usually, you know, after a number of weeks, you no longer The IgM spikes within two or three days, and some tests can detect that, very sensitive,

1:30:20 Yeah, they're different things and they're different tests. come ashore, but it would come ashore more slowly than this huge wave hitting us. they're not as exhausted the doctors do you want an exhausted doctor or with lack of supplies that's Okay. I know I read something about it. Joe, I can't imagine a way that the testing itself Like, what is causing these waves?

1:33:33 fourth wave too. The amplitude of that wave, if we have a vaccine, will be lower, but we'll still In the wintertime, people live differently. dispersion of the virus. And our bodies, our immune systems, as you were discussing earlier, more deadly? And I fear that it will be more deadly. And over a thousand Americans are dying the fact that it's a dangerous disease, but one of the things that the CDC had said was that

1:37:24 Yeah, but the person with diabetes was probably going to die of their diabetes, That's what killed me. apportion all deaths to have a fraction due to different causes. This is what I'm getting at. Exactly. patterns that they're just accustomed to. And it's very difficult to break people out of them. So I totally agree with that. Like, let's say, I'm going to make this up, but let's say for the sake of argument, we were given a choice.

1:42:17 You're not being drafted into a war, but you need to sacrifice. out of me, a person who's spent most of my life thinking about health and fitness and wellness, is that there's been zero impact. that may influence the national messaging on this topic, actually. We need to, unfortunately, avoid gatherings. We are making heavy investments in vaccine technology and in science, which I think we need to do.

1:45:09 a former colleague of mine from when I was at Harvard, now I'm at Yale, and a colleague of because of the deaths, illnesses, and disability from the virus. And that's one of the more confounding things about California's draconian methods, because They've basically opened up everything, live sporting events, concerts, restaurants. incidentally i also don't look at cases by testing i look at deaths right because deaths are much

1:48:06 So I haven't paid close attention to Florida and California lately. Well, Florida, the governor had a press conference, this is why I'm bringing this up, And this goes back to our issue of our conversation about risk. So it is the case that most young spare the old. Like Spanish flu. Yeah, like that's not the case here. So I do take as a parent some

1:50:19 their job a hundred percent i totally agree and this is why going back, I think first thing we have to know, banning gatherings or closing restaurants or whatever. And then now, if we're going to decide Because we are not closing the economy due to COVID. that awful outcome of people being turned away at the hospital door. Or you might even do the calculation and say, look, actually, we've done the calculation and we would lose 40,000 people due to the economy being tanked versus 30,000 lives due to COVID.

1:53:58 I'm mixing it all up now because I'm moving too fast What do you think should be done? But if we did more testing, more masking, more physical distancing, We are going to see the other side of this. I can put on this mask, you know, and if I do that thing and we all do that thing, stores and restaurants and other places to fare better. So, I mean, that's what I would recommend.

1:57:59 that being discussed. Is this something you considered when you wrote the book? In a year or two? just as soon live on a big farm in rural Pennsylvania and do my job from a distance, Maybe Jamie can look up. but many, many cases on the margin, people will say, why should I fly across the country to sign But most households are heterosexual couples.

2:01:39 and schools are closing, So we should absolutely allow individual households and families to make their own schooling, you know, colleges, for example. It's just stupid. Well, now, you know, everyone moved. People didn't want, doctors didn't want It was crazy. Like this is a real example of when something like this is absolutely necessary. spreading the virus.

2:05:24 and like who got the money. to provide for people Hold on. I put on – I uh it it has this nice cover yeah i put on the mask And it comes from a story at the beginning of the Iliad. their camps, and divide up the booty. So they had sacked a nearby city, and there was a maiden girl priest. And he says, away with you. Not only will I not give you my daughter, but she will grow old

2:08:21 And the prayer instantly goes to Mount Olympus beginning of the Iliad goes, first he killed the running dogs and the horses, and then he began to kill the men. Well, that makes a lot more sense because I was wondering. And I look forward to doing this in person in Austin in a year.