Joe Rogan Experience #1609 — Elon Musk Transcript

Transcript

0:00 the Joe Rogan experience and he says, Mm-hmm. Okay. more pointy but was How long do you think it will be before Oh is that where it's supposed to be Or Two years away That's crazy. When you're on a rocket. We expect it to explode. The engines, the structure, avionics, the software, the ground systems are all evolving simultaneously. It's like 10,000%.

4:03 if you plot the points on the curve of progress, then we should be doing regular orbital flights with a high probability of safe landing in two years. No aircraft even comes close to this weight. It's like a big rocket. And that means you need a big rocket and you've got to fly a lot. You're trying to get into orbit with something that eventually It needs to be fully and rapidly reusable.

6:28 I would think this would be your whole being Every night? six is the number where it's yeah six six uh six or six is i can that that, I don't find myself needing, wanting more sleep than six. Well, we're on the wrong planet for a single stage to orbit. So you need a powerful heat shield. That's a funny way to put it. It's usually some form of silicon oxide aluminum oxide

10:10 because it's got cryogenic fluid behind it. the way that they're attached to the body, but Why don't you just make one tile for a roof? And we have a thick atmosphere and strong gravity. But to get to Earth orbit, you need the giant rocket. You haven't seen that? No, it lands propulsively with the thrusters. So that is the bottom of the rocket that launches it straight up,

13:35 Falcon 9 has, there's the fairing, Yes, but it's not really possible to, with Falcon 9, the architecture is, like, if we made the upper stage reusable reusable our payload to orbit would be dramatically less So even just in terms of the computer, a nuclear propulsion or some other method For a boat, you can react against water. In vacuum, there is nothing. So the only way to move

16:56 no um yeah so so so ironically uh everything will go electric except for rockets. you can get CH4 and O2 and you can you can gracefully get your propellant on Yeah, it's about six months. There's a lot of analogies. And so if you want to get out of that gravity well, you actually need to go very fast parallel to the Earth's surface. So all the things in the solar system are spinning around this gigantic funnel in space-time called the sun.

20:59 go to Mars, you basically accelerate in the, along the same path of Earth going around the Sun. And you time but on the edge of the ellipse. But I That's not going to work. will probably remember, you know, which planetary conjunction they came on, you know? is for getting past the Great Filter. you're on a long sea voyage you got to have Yeah. And

25:05 So that's why they're around. What a strange thing to come from. What did you mean by that? uh, Right. there is no evidence for alien life on Earth. Yeah, sure. Lex Friedman systems and then went to their predetermined point that they were supposed to uh that the They have video of it. And there's a couple other different sightings that were very similar.

29:14 I would hope so. and making sure we don't blow ourselves up? I just land in the middle of Times Square. Zero? where were you guys up until now Yeah. That's all. not like yeah like like if aliens visited there'd be something buried somewhere i think um we haven't galaxy in a million years absolutely the entire galaxy so you would start with mars build bases on mars then use mars to jump off to all these other planets set up places there and over

33:41 the permian extinction event that was a real rough one where it's like well over 90% of all species died out. Okay. Yeah. and we need to figure out what questions to ask which may be digital and biological in the future That's like, do you want a future where we're out there among the stars Well, it's in all the most exciting sci-fi movies. Space 1999 was a show when I was a kid

37:22 It takes a few unique individuals that are motivated to do something like this is that the time horizon for SpaceX is long. the feedback loop tends to be, you know, maybe a year to four years or even quarterly and it's like uh well this is like 10 years 20 years out and i don't probably and then you've got to have propellant production. Yes, long-term.

39:54 You could have giant solar reflectors. The sun is a giant thermonuclear reactor in the sky. So, you know, E equals mc squared. So you need a lot of mass. like a pulsing sun. that wouldn't even be that, then you just use a lot more hydrogen. even having computers. in hundreds of years from now, or whatever it would take, people would eventually right you know um so so in hundreds of years from now or whatever it would take

43:05 Or just UV, but warm, the bacteria can repair themselves. It once had quite a dense atmosphere and it would have iron, just rust. and this was all created by civilization. This face was like some sort of ancient shrine to whatever being lived there before. Maybe he's just smarter than all of us. Yeah. Like an asteroid hit? Well, everything got So the smaller you are,

46:37 like if you look at say uh asteroids or you know they don't really have like cirrus is a pretty Yeah. Umau Mau. Yeah. Yeah. Stephen Hawking, before he died, was like, So 1% chance per century. 99 barrels are empty. Well, I think arguably the meaning of life is to understand the nature of the universe I don't know. I think there's And the last time, I don't have to remind you, there was problems involved.

50:29 Does it? Well, physically or... Yeah. Just throw it in there, you know? No, no That's the problem with edibles Yeah. I mean, you know, it's not like, you know, attendance is mandatory here. food's probably not great uh a lot of hard work no sunlight yeah it's i mean it's like it sounds happened very quickly but people adapt when they realize that this is you have to do something

54:05 Ghost towns. catastrophic happened yeah and you don't have the ability to access all that stuff we're kind of Man, the Egyptians really went to town with the hieroglyphics. And, like, our stuff is, yeah, it's not going to last for a long time. they put something boring on, like a concrete block, I'll put that one in there. Wow. There's no, like, we don't quite realize it, but in the atmosphere, like, the atmosphere is making everything a little fuzzy.

57:30 Wow. It's mostly just driven by the, There's a camera on a stick. What is that one up there that shows the whole car? Don't Panic. Yeah, I've heard about that Yeah. Maybe you're six feet. Like a jet. And then a bunch of thrusters. That would be on the ground. or this month Yeah. And I go, you want to freak out? it's what the fuck this is crazy it's crazy it's crazy yes so this is

1:01:57 I thought Plaid was going to ship later in the year. which would be a pretty wicked outcome. And even the ones that are close that they say really matters like it's like you know you're at a you know the light goes green boom who's Yeah. I like driving. Yeah. Yeah. I used to have a car that had a button for the horn. There are no yokes. it will figure out whether you want to go backwards or forwards.

1:05:58 Yeah, what if it's ambiguous? Right. Do you do it? big like why wouldn't it be big yeah it's better it's better to be big yeah it keeps the software adjusted basis what's the best way to go to go to work but how does it adjust And then you get it right away. you basically just get in and it'll assume If you have to do something, it's We've got the backgammon with the aesthetic described in Lost.

1:09:44 You'll see, it's the top of the list. Kind of like Waze. Okay. Kind of like Waze. it's going to be really about entertainment. Yeah, I usually listen to music. I started researching Sea Shanties. Oh, my God. strange yeah it's very odd so um it seems like one of the top reasons to be a pirate would be Yeah. When is that thing going to happen? factory location like where do you want to spend time and uh the number one choice was Austin

1:12:59 But it's very utopian. to move in the first place. Not kind of has to. And the restaurants are amazing. texas a lot of tigers man has more tigers in captivity than all of the wild of planet earth She's like Yeah They're wild here wild freedom and they embrace 50 years. That's cool. the escape from this wretched dreariness of of you know the covid pandemic it was just like this horrible feeling

1:17:12 They sure love it. don't want to buy into this shit. away from the airport. Will you offer, like, if someone wants to come and get their truck from the factory and drive it off the floor? About 2,500 acres right next to the airport. I sent you a picture. Is it going to be that shape? Oh, okay. How do we ever explain that? So that's cool. and volume production

1:20:24 because you've got to worry about road noise things to try to put into one It's an incremental constraint. Flats are annoying Yeah Um, Yeah, Steven Spielberg was actually one. it would be like, ultimately, have the tires last for a long time and not go flat um it's gonna make a lot of sense yeah um At the same window, though? Yeah, we don't need the fast ball.

1:23:54 possibly what might have happened We didn't. you decide to do all that make it bulletproof and make it like you could hit it with a sledgehammer like what what was the motivation to make it different than just like Cruising around the field and lobbing, shooting rockets. put some solar cells in that. and then you're going to get probably 20%, 25% efficiency,

1:27:05 I mean, is it possible to make a car entirely of solar panels? home and extract the power that way So when you park it at work or something like that, Now, the range of the new cars is much longer. Even the old one. That's a lot. It'll be some number over 300 miles. They're not optimized for long range. Yeah. So it'll minimize the range somewhat. Yeah.

1:31:20 zone basically um and that's uh that's bad for drag hmm so having the slope back where okay, Yeah. You know, worth it. no problem austin to Dallas, no problem. So for the roof. That kind of thing. Yeah. And maybe you can even have some sort of an external tent that you could set up that. Or, you know, in a 10-foot by, with the right energy, hits the electron, electron gets excited, jumps over a gap in the semiconductor, and races around to the other side.

1:36:39 So, but if you're talking about like... how's it going to do? There's satellites that have the triple junction galleon last night stuff, Sure. they don't know what they're talking about things flying around that would during the initial... they just got tossed out of the of satellites down but before that we It would be great. And there's currently 36 planes.

1:40:18 So they're all doing like a sine wave, you know, just offset by a little bit. And then we just started to launch some polar satellites, Yeah. Yeah. There's a lot that can be improved with software. it's you know it will provide some amount of connectivity in dense open environments. It's the same thing. Like they might be, you know, several miles diameter on that beam.

1:44:16 It's a fact. Well, let's say, so a cell tower could have a range of, you know, a mile or, you know, I see. They're so bad. That look like basketballs That's a fucking stupid thing. That is the fake. The left side, Jamie? Wow, that's kind of not bad. That's kind of a pine tree looking thing. you could definitely a little bit of effort i don't need that you know just like i don't need

1:47:18 So maybe just a bit more effort in the fakery. Thinking they cause radiation or something poisoning. If I had cell phones, if I had a helmet of cell phones. Okay. Meanwhile, he kept the phone on the same side. Yeah, don't worry about it. Phones are not causing cancer. we are currently bathed in a very short wavelength or high frequency So those will rip right through your, it's like if you got shot with tiny cannonballs, bad things would happen.

1:50:00 Okay, avoid those. It's like, it's not emitting particles, That's all. the unknown, right? They hear about 5G Fine. head and shove wires in your brain. And said, like, okay, you're going to get this. And this is not going to be something where it just suddenly pounces on you. You wouldn't even know that they had a chip in their head. yeah, geez. People are relying on glasses and all sorts of other technology to improve their life.

1:54:06 Until it becomes more efficient to do it inside the mind. It's disturbingly good. You'll love it. Money back guarantee. Where it actually hits the pleasure center, She tried to tamper with the device to increase the It made me... I mean, I researched You wouldn't do it, but the Chinese. But software limits could easily be worked around. Orwell would be losing his mind.

1:56:41 It could totally lie. Yeah, and some people are like, that's not good enough. I want it It has everything. It looks like a cheesy flip phone. Yeah. It's like they didn't even have a camera. Have you thought about sending a camera They thought we'd be out there on, well, they thought far by far not even close the cameras like i have a samsung galaxy S21 that has moon photo capability.

1:59:02 The iPhone can take good photos of the moon. The zoom is incredible too. Just make it all out of lenses. I don't... Glad you're here for that. Oh, yeah. well i mean the thing i was trying to do like literally uh you know i don't know five or six Yeah. It's still better, Apple? Yeah, it's still better. Yeah. Is it still good? It's still better, Apple?

2:01:58 They'll know you better than you know yourself. And then disingenuously Facebook tries to say, you are killing small businesses with these decisions. it does and who knows what would happen? So, you know, like, I... You know, although sometimes we have our disagreements, an FAA. That's the problem. The deep state. controlling populations governments whatever the fuck they're going to use it for and then it's

2:05:50 You know, so we need to have protection against cyber attacks. it propagated throughout the world to keep an eye on things, see what was going on. And Skynet said, oh, you've asked me to destroy myself. The idea of life being restricted to cells or carbon-based life forms is kind of silly. If we create some sort of silicon-based life form, but it acts like a life form, it has a desire.

2:08:08 There's cum everywhere. Back to artificial intelligence I don't know We got the What government agency does the best job of oversight? That's government. I don't know. to be uh above a zero percent chance that the other party wins right if it's zero percent chance Yeah. with a monopoly. There's plenty of cases of regulatory capture for federal agencies.

2:12:06 or some sort of corporation that would profit on AI succeeding? But I think the right role of government is to be like the referee on the field. Yes. there's still significant risk even with a regulatory agency. they're on the verge of bankruptcy, like there was no tomorrow. So, but still, the car companies advanced airbags. Really? Yeah. I think there might have come full circle and no longer need seatbelts if you have advanced airbags. Really?

2:15:25 the airbags deploy so we'll calculate you know are you an adult like how much do you weigh are Really? Yeah. Like you fill the whole cabin up with foam? It's like fast inflation, then slow inflation, then slowly subside. we, Yeah. Yeah. Right. It's pretty safe for a car like that, Even the HVAC system used to run off a belt from the engine. thirty percent. So then, and the weight distribution was all different. So you invalidated all

2:20:32 It's just easier sometimes. You could not recreate that in a production situation. inverter, couldn't use the charger. In the end we used frank, it's easy to do a design of a sports beyond my skill. You you know we talked about this that's what they are on amazon is that what they call them i i don't know but the top gear has been We only just gave you the car.

2:24:20 I mean, that had to cost you guys a shitload of money. uh their their objection was like this is just entertainment it's not meant to be true Who Killed the Electric Car? I mean, the irony is like, man, can you imagine just how different a future GM would have had? And it's really been becoming interesting. right now. of Tesla by how many years did we accelerate the advent of sustainable

2:27:56 But we're not going to be able to move forward. So, you know, as soon as they had an electric starter high energy density capacitors. You can't scale something if it's using ruthenium. Lithium is everywhere. if you wanted to. It's called lithium ion, but that's like the salt in the salad. Iron is very common. stainless steel. you know, that'll be, you know, 12, 12, it's

2:32:46 So you have nickel and iron, and then you've got the anode side, very rapidly year over year it's just that in order to compensate for the rest for an economy Sooner is better. I mean, can a small ppm increase in carbon really move the needle that much? it's a smaller percentage increase than you'd think when looking at temperature in the absolute as opposed to, you know, above the freezing point of water.

2:36:10 And humanity is like that. you know and and by the way like throughout history like the water level has varied a lot. It's like nutty how much it's varied. Oh, yeah. behave as though we're going to be fine, we will be fine. What can be done to move that? Now, it would, I mean, my top recommendation honestly would be just to have a carbon tax. removal is free um but it's like there's a little bit of like okay garbage removal isn't for you

2:39:57 Yeah. That's the way to do it. nor would you expect it to. And by the way, SpaceX would be paying a carbon tax, too. For sure. So we're like, yeah, you should probably bias the taxes towards alcohol and tobacco. Have higher taxes on alcohol and tobacco. I was like, I just thought, well, for sure. and the the whole yeah i mean the thing is like the Paris Accord, this is just a piece of paper

2:43:14 you know. Hmm. That seems like it would be such a good idea i mean i think it's an obvious move and if you if you just call up like you know say like top economists like just do a poll of like what do 90 percent of We need fossil fuels. and they started out in that career when it didn't seem like that bad of a thing to do. the smartest thing the oil and gas industry could do,

2:45:46 Did Bernie Sanders endorse a carbon tax? Yeah. He was a mayor in Vermont. That's a long time. It's like internal, their own documents, their own people. This is the way the Earth is. Yeah. actually true yeah yeah yeah but that's not necessarily okay still causes problems yeah i Like I said, I don't think, based on where we are, What would constitute a nonlinear event?

2:50:25 that's where you could have a non-linearity gonna happen this is just a chemical reaction man it's like yeah so is there anything it's like why we even run this experiment like so the crazy thing is So what the hell are we running this experiment for? this $100 million carbon capture prize to find out the answer to that question. Not currently. and then it ends up in a low energy state,

2:54:10 And this is a hard problem. like a giant air filter. Really? of the chinese government they you know so well let's like ask the you know engineering professors I think people don't realize China is super pro-environment right now. Or is that actually taking carbon out? Yeah. So if you're in some sort of a biological disaster area, you can drive through with your Tesla?

2:57:50 carried away i'm glad you get carried away you know another thing i thought is jamie's got the x there's not another car like that in the world. on the roof, Yeah. But the thing is... So, we developed a... isolation ring. and those are the ultrasonic sensors. So it's mounted on the inside of the door on isolation mounts, and created yeah this is a fabuze the model x is a Fabergé egg of cars. It's crazy.

3:02:03 So we had to have sun visors that nest in the A-pillar, so like the windscreen is a resonator for the sound system yes the sound Have you increased the range of the X? the X weighs more and it's got a bigger cross-sectional area and she was in the Comedy Store parking lot, With the doors were going up and down, That's it. I mean, like I said, exercise and hubris.

3:05:53 The car that's the most fun to show for others is the Model X for sure Yeah. mileage take a lot of gasoline per mile so uh you know if you're replacing you know big suvs that's you would only talk about things you understand i don't know it's weird i also heard that at one Yeah, I just thought it was odd because I knew I was like, what are you talking about?

3:09:05 And so it'll be much more batteries and... 500 kilowatt hour pack for a semi. Would it be possible to have a safer semi We can also... We'd have motors individually controlling the wheels, sure it's it's stable and doesn't a jackknife It's sort of like having a train but on the highway. You could put like, you know, 40, 50 feet between them, no problem.

3:11:53 No problem. there's a limit i'm glad you got a spot where you can't go any further. There's only so many hours in the day. thought about this a lot. Um, yeah, I mean, an aircraft in cruise is a neutral force balance air resistance, the air resistance is sound at sea level you could go you know twice the speed of sound at, let's say, 100,000 feet. Yeah. earthers up there haha um yeah the the faster you go the like like you just want to go the higher

3:15:51 Do you think there would ever be a time where Tesla could run itself in a sense of like you have enough talented people running it It is a different regime. I mean, there are no car companies that are aircraft companies, really. Quickly. um change direction It's pretty easy to do a flying wing. This is all about, like, you'd want watt hours per kilogram at the

3:18:43 You don't necessarily have to get into planes right now. Yep. like those so the wings we've like what's the wing angle that's that big drive so much of and you have to have a circulatory system. is you move a lot of 13 years. Get high. Obviously, you just want to go super high. And then it's going to drop off in efficiency quite a lot as you go higher.

3:23:28 So like the air density at 100,000 feet is approximately 1% that at sea level. This is an intractable problem but if you have an electric fan it's not burning anything so aperture doesn't matter mmm big it's a big deal Well, thank you very much. Thank you.