Joe Rogan Experience #1779 — Michael Osterholm Transcript

Transcript

0:00 Dr. Osterholm, welcome back. deal with the situation. As you know, at that time, March 10th of 2020, no one wanted to believe this you think was done correctly? Well, first of all, let me just say that one of the things I think good job sharing with the public and even within ourselves, what did we really know and not know? trying to plant my petunias in a Category 5 hurricane. I mean, it was just one of those

3:37 Everyone wanted to declare independence from COVID. I don't know that. couple of assumptions there that I think really deserve comment. Number one, the term it's a pandemic. And it's just because the sheer number. And so I think that that's one thing. First of in fact, even if you look at studies like in Iowa, where they followed it and actually looked

6:48 I think it's something because it's a statewide. And we could see ahead of us. Now, when you say that, so Omicron is far more contagious than Delta and far, far more contagious than the original variant. Well, and we don't know. All those people are at much higher risk of having severe illness. Yep. It was very mild. All sorts of autoimmune diseases.

10:43 Really? alpha variant, which showed up in roughly December of 2020 into January 2021. And we found limited transmission in kids, Well, yeah. With a little bit more changes, it turns into Omicron. Every one of them have a distinct line So it's actually take you back to the original variant. So the question on Omicron's industry, it's still a small percentage, but it's growing. Last week, it was 4%. The previous week was 1%.

14:32 occur surely can accumulate. If you look right now, for example, there's more difference genetically I think that we could still see the emergence of new variants that could challenge the immunity that we have already, which is what makes this virus so difficult and so different than we've had before. back to us. With looking at SARS-CoV-2 and this particular coronavirus, we don't know what it's going to do.

16:35 But it became clear because we started seeing zoo animals infected. bio or animal reservoir? Yes, absolutely. That's it. human to animal, animal back to human. When you say game farms, are you talking about like Well, it could just easily have been person to person. and see this kind of similar pattern emerging, particularly with transmitting it into these

19:39 in the Western Pacific region, in Hong Kong, likely in China, we're not hearing enough at all that would support that, number one, this was a man-made virus. There was a lab accident, which surely can happen. of which But I don't think anybody thinks it's an intentional release, do they? Some people believe the world's flat, right? I think it is. But let me paint a picture here that also helps explain the situation.

23:26 And so if that were the case, imagine the Russians and the Chinese saying, I think part of the problem with what's going on in Wuhan was that lab is a level four lab that was working on bat-borne coronaviruses. They have. it continues to be a major distraction. Wasn't there recently a version of the virus that was discovered, a very early version humans. Now, the people that are suspicious that this did come from some gain-of-function research,

27:01 occasionally infects humans, but could it one day become the next further discussion. But again, I don't see any evidence at this point that anyone has provided that shares anecdotal evidence is not really evidence. It's not storytelling, but I see some of these things. And I've never seen any of those the Wuhan lab. And a lot of files that were deleted from the Wuhan lab.

29:41 was that there was data that they wanted to get rid of so people wouldn't see it. You don't know? I don't know. If there was proof that a lot of files were deleted, because of the design of the virus itself, that we wouldn't design something like that. it was made in a lab, how do they think that something like that would be created? In fact, with the camels being the main reservoir for MERS in the Arabian Peninsula, we keep having MERS cases because nobody's going to put down all these camels.

33:20 Can you explain how that's done? They're using different coronaviruses and various viruses and infecting human respiratory tissue. And they're also doing experiments on ferrets because they have very similar ACE2 receptors to human beings. Right? Is that the case? So in terms of the coronaviruses, I've not seen any evidence of, again, gain of function because

34:41 case? Yeah. In the principle of what you laid out, that's the case. What I'm saying is I don't know that they're doing that. I have not seen any evidence. It could Peter Daszak? any firsthand or secondhand knowledge that that was what was being done in Wuhan. But if they were have the similar ACE2 receptors, that this would somehow or another make a virus more

36:51 But if we're looking at the origins of it, I mean, this is what's concerning to people, right? we're about to become a human-to-human transmitted virus and this is the risk and we can actually address the risk and therefore the benefit is worth doing. You look at it and there's just not enough of it, right? I didn't. If I can't understand it, I want to ask people who do know because there's a lot of the parts of this,

40:13 it's like the Kennedy-Lincoln analogy I just used, and now it proves a point. So therefore, But we actually have the actual people that were trying to say that it seems like this is coming from a lab. Got it. few older people that were asymptomatic that got it. And what do you think the reason for that is? What it does indicate is clearly having these comorbidities adds to the likelihood that once you get infected, you're going to have severe illness.

42:58 And why they got infected and died, I don't know. outbreaks of hepatitis A because parents would come down with it. And they'd get really sick. who get infected and have illness in general, Well, you know, I think, Joe, that's one of those questions, again, that kind of begs the very issue of what is this SARS-CoV-2 virus all about? Because if you go from the beginning of the COVID pandemic to now, look at how different the

45:29 future of this pandemic, it's because this virus keeps throwing 210 mile an hour curveballs at us. you could actually show that basically those people who had previous infection did better People who had Delta got Omicron. a lot of breakthrough infections with Omicron. You know, what was it that protected you or didn't that when you got infected by SARS-CoV-2, whichever variant, that you had a high likelihood

48:59 The number of deaths were elevated. Oh, I think particularly around body mass index a lot. Really? Oh, yes. I think so. I mean, I gave many talks where I was talking about- Body mass index is a weird one because I'm technically obese by the body mass index. Yes, absolutely. Is that really unusual? I mean, how much of a factor is obesity in terms of just a general immune system?

51:50 at this point of an ongoing infection. It's not that the virus is still proliferating and we just a general term, a catch-all, that basically covered people. And most often, it was associated tremendous efforts put into, it's long COVID. You know, there are these new centers starting they trained through it and guys that trained through covet 19 tended to suffer long-term

54:48 But when they're competing, they're not – maybe some of them are not quite at the level that they used to be. Remember, our immune system is like skating on a razor blade. And I think you're going and it's not just one thing. never have recovered fully. Is that a fair way to- Yeah. I think it's really- Or they were before the virus. They never have recovered fully. Is that a fair way to-

57:38 Where it's really becomes very clear is people who've had milder COVID, who then in the second people who have fully recovered from COVID and, you know, they are doing perfectly fine. So something happened, and do we know, is it measurable? Is there a mechanism that can explain this, or is it a series of mechanisms? At this point, we're just in the infancy of that.

1:00:38 And this is really a challenge. And have you read anything about hyperbaric therapy in relation to recovery from this? I haven't. You haven't? No. Have you read anything about, and that we're trying to figure out first and foremost what might be the mechanisms that are Very strange, right? and that Pfizer has. There's a bunch of different antiviral medications and pills that they're

1:03:29 But I think the drug therapies are going to become really, really critical. have these double-blind placebo-controlled trials, you know, studies where neither the investigator the testing capacity. But doesn't that seem, that seems like something that would be much more easily. So if I need to get a test done, I can get it done the same day There has been some. And again, this is another area of study that needs to be done. But I mean, if you look at these issues here, getting the drugs to

1:06:24 By COVID. I mean, what it's done to care in general and what it's done to our healthcare you know, will be huge if we could do that. And it would improve health care in general. So to me, The two that did went down in south Minneapolis in the 50s and were handled by the Minneapolis Fire Department. They can get on those drugs. in health have been in Africa, where we've been able to distribute these drugs for HIV day in and

1:09:36 So they have a shelf life? They do. They do. Why is that? Because basically the reagents in there somebody's not sitting on some stuff and others are using more. I'll make sure that the most, surge capacity because there's only so much you can actually put in surplus stock with the fact that some of it basically will, in fact, expire. You've got to be prepared.

1:11:49 Let's go back to vitamin D. Sure. Meaning people who have adequate vitamin D, is it because of their behavior, what they eat? could that help improve? You know, much like we did with niacin and milk and so forth, you know, illness. If you look, the real correlation, which again is not cause and effect, but is who are the in fact, you would find this interesting, is the fact that one of the most novel programs I've seen some really novel ideas. Probably the most, in fact, you would find this interesting, is the fact that one of the most novel programs I've seen has been a new movement

1:15:17 There actually is. And then they actually look at the outcome in their clients. You know, well, I heard it in the barber chair. Well, you know, if she was highly trained, it may be a good time for you to listen. were infected with COVID, recovered, and had robust immunity, but yet they were fired because across the board, people who were infected and had vaccine did much better. Okay.

1:18:28 per 100,000, big drop, and then fully vaccinated with a booster, it was 0.010, I mean, the data are there. admission, not there for COVID, who were there at least 10 days and then got infected and got proven that people that are vaccinated also catch COVID and also spread COVID? They can, absolutely. one dose of a vaccine? Right. And I think we should look at that carefully as considering

1:22:06 And the actual level of protection for the mRNA vaccines will decrease where you see that waning immunity at four to six months. all emerging new science we're learning about. I think if I had to make a prediction in the at the University of Minnesota, is actually going to be leading and to be announced very better and better vaccines coming out over the long term.

1:24:40 But let me just add a qualifier to that. So, for example, I can tell you if you get a measles vaccine and I do a blood sample, And that's where the real proof in the pudding is, is that do they get clinically ill or not? but it's a combination of all the parts of the immune system, you know, the B cells and the T I think this is the next best opportunity here. We're going to learn so much about human immunity

1:27:58 company. But if you go to any textbook of immunology or anything in epidemiology, there's So when you say about boosting the whole immunity, you got to be very careful because, again, what we don't want to do is cause an immune-related disease like the trigger that might be happening with COVID to up all the immune system in a way that causes you to have

1:29:43 of work coming out in the near term is on cancer. And I think that one of the things, particularly for people who have specific risk factors, you know, genetically, they're predisposed to breast cancer, they're predisposed to these things. If you could pick up certain changes in the cells that indicate this is a precancerous cell or an early cancer cell, imagine if you had

1:31:06 You know, that's a real challenge. You know, stress has been shown to challenge your immune you know, it's still early, but it surely has a potential future. Now, when it comes to side effects and adverse effects from vaccines, we can show time and time again right now from study after study that, in fact, the risk of myocarditis is greater in getting COVID by far than it is to getting the vaccine, much greater.

1:33:25 You don't take into account arrhythmias, all the other things that the virus does to the heart, which we never talk about. a heart condition. And then he wound up getting a heart condition from the virus itself. Now, if you look at the serious outcomes of particularly vaccines, inflammation occurred, why it occurred, I can't comment. I don't know. But I can tell you that

1:36:29 vaccine. Didn't I read something that was pointing to the potential ceasing of the production of the And they will continue to make it. who previously before seemed protected who are now getting infected, who are getting What do you think is going on with Israel? I read this whole thing about vaccinated people in Israel, like that there was a giant surge of vaccinated people catching COVID. The surge is primarily in—and I don't have the numbers in front of me, but the surge is primarily in unvaccinated people.

1:39:42 Let me see if we can find something. was really covered by the unvaccinated. and particularly in hospitalizations and deaths, I mean, I think it gets gets Here's the first thing I found In vaccination coverage, and breakthrough infections. Right, but this is only a month old. We only looked at the top The vaccinated class divided into five stages to mimic the diminishing of immunity. See, these are all vaccinated people.

1:42:24 Right. I had heard it was way more infectious than that. There's not a way you can, like, look at the actual virus itself and say, But it said, before blocked, it said that 40% of the population in Israel is unvaccinated. 40%? I'll try to find it. is that because Omicron evades the protection of the original vaccine? Or are they saying they haven't been vaccinated?

1:45:23 that said that, this was back in the end of the summer, being vaccinated if you're not boosted well they do but they don't count it as fully vaccinated So you said that Omicron. you're unvaccinated, your rate is about 9.74 per 100,000 population, 9.74. So, for example, with the booster, you can boost it back up. So if you take something from 95% protection to 78% protection, we call that evading immune protection. But you're still getting substantial protection for most people.

1:49:18 versus how many people only had two shots versus how many people were unvaccinated. I haven't seen any breakouts. going deep into your lungs and then going into the rest of your body. Clearly, people are looking at what But I think it's going to be the future. And some people will say, well, you know, we didn't say it would protect against infection.

1:52:27 Well, I think it's a very powerful tool. I think my concern, and we had an article in Why is that? I mean, if you don't have a health care provider, how the hell do you get tested mutations in Omicron basically canceled out their effectiveness because the mutations were where And the problem we had is we just didn't have an adequate way to test people to say you have Delta or you have Omicron.

1:55:16 use this one. And we don't even have those kinds of data the timely way, which is part of what I So that would be like an almost universal monoclonal antibody. Right now, but tomorrow the kind of care that they provided, whether it was ventilators, how they approached it, Why is that? not? Were they up front, you know, were they the people that were at admitting, et cetera?

1:58:45 And so they want to be vaccinated largely. We have to be better prepared to handle surge capacity. We just weren't. the more care needed. The more care needed, the more people were stretched. The more people got During this recent Omicron surge, you did not want to have a heart attack. to be prepared for any future surge. And what we have to understand is how many healthcare workers

2:01:51 They both have tires. when I was on here in 2020, I wrote a piece in April 2020 saying this is aerosol transmitted. And so when you ask me, do N95s and KN95s work, I'd say yes. They were chin diapers. them, what are they doing to protect you from infection? And what are they doing to protect as basically the oversight regulation of those, comes from the occupational world. It's largely

2:05:06 Yep, just like that, yeah. The virus will come right through, in and out. charge of this mask that actually- faces, but that wouldn't last very long. fitting tight in your face. You can actually wear them for quite some time. I wear my N95 for days. now. So the public can use them. They can be very helpful, but you got to use them. can you really space people out to the point where you can have sick people in the same room and not... Can't sick, infected. But then that's where

2:09:14 buildings and we're not. Interesting. So the ventilation systems that they have on airplanes, Thank you. And, of course, you want people not to become seriously ill and die. work. It doesn't work. Or a surgical mask. Yeah. And so that is what you see though when you have And I don't think that's a wrong thing. or work. It was losing a loved one. And, you know, when you have 900,000 people die,

2:13:09 It was both. to tell them we need to do and why? And, you know, right now I think they tune us out quite a bit have with this virus, which has made it so difficult, is the long-term nature of what's I didn't understand. I think there was a situation where we lacked humility in saying what we know and don't know. done a good job getting out of just being humble and saying, I don't know.

2:16:55 Well, why not bring him in here? Israeli data? I think the really important message here, if you look at the countries, shots. Well, we have a number of them that have one shot, which is not nearly enough adequate unvaccinated? It's both. But what I'm saying is what really brought that surge on was in terms What we're talking about, and I talk about that surge, I'm talking about it in terms of severe illness, hospitalizations, and deaths.

2:19:39 Well, first of all, we have to be really cautious about saying how many cases they've had. advantage in terms of likelihood of having severe illness. But I think at the same time, we're or is it possible that there's other medications that they've been taking that could have contributed to their low numbers of infections? we're in a place where even looking at South Africa, that big burst of cases has come down,

2:22:36 And you can say, well, they're islands. And so I think there's lessons here for us to learn across the board. Denmark occurring as they've opened up everything. But the number of hospitalizations and people in ICUs have gone down all that stuff together. trials with ivermectin is going to be very if you do a double-blind placebo-controlled trial, that means that neither the patient

2:26:25 trials. I wish we had done some randomized controlled trials on masking and how to make And you don't do it by being a salesman. we could have done better. And also the burden on the healthcare providers. I think that's something that people need to be really reminded of. this topic. Yeah, hopefully. Yeah. Well, hopefully it won't be a new one, right?

2:28:28 Bye, everybody.