Joe Rogan Experience #1921 — Peter Zeihan Transcript

Transcript

0:00 The Joe Rogan Experience. type of material, this subject matter for quite a long time. So tell everybody your background. energy supply and the food supply, I have not heard before. I haven't heard it as comprehensively defense strategy is to be forward positioned and use geography to help you out. So you expand until There is something to be said for that. You just have to put it into context to really understand

3:53 Well, I don't think it was just the Russians who anticipated it. Ukraine, the last war in 2014, So even I was saying that within six months to a year, this was all going to be over. they will have been able to do a lot of deferred maintenance on the equipment they captured from history. The first year is always an absolute shit show. are going to be able to completely break the logistical supply chains that allow the Russian

7:31 that term. But anyway, armored vehicles that have some serious firepower are going to be coming now. Best guess is that he has taken a third of the budget himself for procurement and his flunkies have taken another third. reduced the Russian military to going back to Russia, confiscating city buses and literally And so he now knows very clearly that if he throws a nuke at the United States, we're going to throw one not at Russia.

10:26 But after the battles of Izium and Kyrgyzstan, the Ukrainians have more Russian gear now than likely without a significant shift in Okay. That's the best guess. How many Ukrainians have been lost? Probably about a third of that. had additional liberation since then, it corroborates that general assessment. Because if the Russians see this as an existential conflict,

14:18 David Schoenbrod Absolutely. They've had a series of big melon scoops out of their birth rate throughout the history, that have been born in the last 30 years to carry the ethnicity forward much farther. And they have no way of moving troops around in a way that would allow them to defend it. Jesus. And we're now in an environment that between the terminal demographic structure of the Soviet slash Russian system and Putin's personal paranoia.

18:18 So because of his sort of top-down approach, he's eliminated all the possibility of future leaders in some way. Even if Russia did have a replacement generation coming up, and it doesn't, he's taken steps to make sure that they can't challenge him. than just NATO weapons, the Ukrainians actually knew what they were doing. They changed the line I'm just saying that this is the official line right now,

19:35 And he has been a partner with organized crime and with Putin since the beginning. And they ran with it. So we've got a Jewish Nazi gay demon. Yeah. going in a time when you should probably be laying down is really the kind of the bottom line. just in different outfits. And even with those I mean, the standards are a little different. See if you can find any of that, Jim.

22:44 he's actually sick or not, I have no idea. Mid-60s. So he's kind of the Ukrainian propaganda guy. and he should be shot on sight if he kills Putin. So there's no immediate pretender to the throne technology. And from the European point of view, that was a huge improvement. And the belief in And so for the first time in human history, we were all on the same path, you know, from different starting points and going at different speeds, but we

26:07 up into a column because you have fewer kids, but everyone's living longer. And as long as your down. And now you no longer have children, you no longer have a replacement generation at all. because the Americans are no longer patrolling the global oceans anymore. So we're losing the So this is one of those places where they've got more people in their 60s and their 50s and their 40s and their 30s and their 20s.

28:47 And what is the ratio to men to women in the younger people in China now? So despite a trillion dollars of investment and a bottomless supply of intellectual property theft, they really haven't advanced technologically in the last 15 years. people he doesn't like. And so the Chinese were the only country that was caught with their pants with Russia, we're looking at a significant amount of raw materials falling off the map,

31:43 They're going to try to adjust. It's not very high value add. They're still dependent upon the United States. Like even at the height of the Trump administration, when Trump was basically isolated himself from the entire intelligence community, he was still getting the daily briefing. But in China, we can hear into the office, but there are no conversations happening.

34:23 He murders anybody that... He doesn't And what is their plan? But if you go with nationalism, give people a non-economic reason to support the state. So even And it takes about six months of data for you to get good information on the R-naught and the lethality. So we just don't know. And then third, in part because of Xi, when you're a one Just from COVID.

37:33 So no one has natural immunity. line of defense. They don't have a clinic and a doctor system in the towns like we do. Peter, can you give us an assessment of what we're really dealing with start preparing, which is what we used to do. I have to say, and I have some friends, I have What do you think, first of all, Well, no, not their food is imported, the inputs.

41:53 China faces the biggest one in absolute terms because of the size of their population. as part of the price cap that the Europeans are putting into place. But more important, That was all BP. BP's gone. So we don't know how long the It falls into famine. Now, one of the things that's really disturbing to the West is watching what's happened to Hong Kong.

45:11 Well, Hong Kong would probably be one of those cities that splits off. It happened in Russia. been that they plan long game. So what is their plan on getting through what you think is a 10-year timeline for their demise? the United States is that we've got more navigable waterways than everyone else in the world put together, about 13,000 miles. that in order to support our allies against the Soviets in the Cold War.

48:41 So you get these spheres of influence that don't necessarily cooperate or and the hard parts of my job is we have never faced a demographic collapse that wasn't caused by war. The closest would be the Black Plague. But the Chinese are going to lose a greater Remember, we're a net exporter. always find things to stress about. I don't mean to suggest that the next five years are just going to be a picnic. We're going to have to double the size of the industrial plant as the Chinese system

50:55 And you're largely become immune to shocks beyond the horizon. With the inflation, I mean, I don't want to come across as a partisan here, but the Inflation price. You get into more sophisticated manufacturing and it kind of does this weird split. and they're going to be our largest trading partner moving forward for at least the next 30 years, probably a lot more. Are there hiccups? Oh, yeah. Plenty

53:55 This is not something I'm an expert at. A lot of the fentanyl deaths is cut. Like cocaine, fentanyl deaths are very high. Well, then you're talking about a regulatory issue. And just keep in mind that whenever you move something in from an illegal to a regulatory So what we're going to do is we're going to hire out a bunch of armored cars and trucks,

55:49 The Federal Reserve of the United States of America is now in the business of money laundering. because of the legalization of marijuana in California, and fucking machine guns, funded the mafia. They ran booze illegally because it was illegal. So criminals are going to be in the attractiveness of gutting them of some of their primary income, should we look at that?

58:24 So that's where they got their enormous resources. Mexico is, to be perfectly honest, really early in this process. The challenge we're son, one of the Los Tepitos. And his cartel as a result is fracturing because his leadership's gone. under the Obama administration. And one of the reasons our birth rate went down so far so fast interesting thing that you don't hear a lot about American gangs anymore. Well, that's because

1:01:45 But we weren't really kind of, this narrative didn't really go around. This is not something Right. And this is El Chapo's cartel that is now getting broken up. rifles to try to shoot down planes yesterday. Have you seen that? I have. I mean, what the basically got together with assault weapons and descended upon the police units that did it and what kind of airplanes are those?

1:04:32 And if you are in a cartel, that means you need heavier weaponry to fight back. You've got Jalisco New Generation, the hyper-violent ones. that maybe they can turn Sinaloa into the next Zetas and just break it apart. future right out of the gate. to the military, we could have a very real problem here. Trump and AMLO got along great because Trump really never asked

1:08:53 extraditions have stopped. Most law enforcement cooperation has stopped. Most intelligence So we will get a new person. So the whole world's fucked. Remember that one in every six Americans now has genetic links into Mexico. Easily. But do you really, with all this information? I would imagine that this would We're going to emerge from this in 10 years in so much of a better place.

1:11:47 That's a tall order. system. Xi is far more paranoid and far more isolated and far more consolidated than Mao ever was. I want to, I'm not positive, I want to say it was 66. And he'll be constantly surrounded by cronies. set the system up around 1980 that he wasn't going to be there forever and he wasn't going to be able to predict what was going to happen in the 2000s.

1:14:17 And so there is no secession plan post-Xi. I'm adopted. And so just kind of combining the data patterns with the American strategy for World War II and beyond, kind of sways in your general direction. And so there's no shortage of people in a room when I'm What is your perspective on EVs? that means the entire system that feeds into the EVs. We need twice as much copper and four times

1:17:54 I will give a little bit of defense for California though, because I do consider myself a green. nuclear power. They undoubtedly will end up doing it on EVs. So do you think it's one of those things where there's a bunch of green people who don't do the their clean-ish energy from natural gas going Where will the copper and the nickel and where will all that go?

1:20:51 or we will die. Like I said, I'm a green, so I broadly believe in the science. The bulk of climate change you think is caused by humans. rid of some frost. So pretty soon we're going to be double cropping. But if you're in a drier And that means that people are looking for other ways to belong because the old traditional methods of family and farm aren't as tight as they used to be.

1:23:19 So do you drive an electric vehicle? Yeah. But what I have seen from hydrogen at the moment suggests that it is far dirtier than gasoline. And the seals have to be perfect. You got a Hindenburg-type situation. Act like gasoline. traditional internal combustion engines. Vehicles would still need to use oil to lubricate the engine. In the pilot phase,

1:27:13 If you're going to do that with a conventional fuel system like we have in pretty much every I am broadly pro-nuclear. The problem is timeframe. If there were no regulations at all, The issue is until we solve the fuel containment issue on the back end once it's spent. So the chemistry of taking a spent nuclear rod Yeah. They just put it in a pond.

1:30:04 There was a process of processing of anything that could do that. No, no. I mean, don't get for the Development combined with layers radioactive decay and that's what turns you into goo. So these radioactive diamonds. but at least from a chemical point of view, Nanodiamond batteries will be able to charge devices But is this an oversimplification? But radioactive decay

1:33:11 All it takes is a pickaxe and all of a sudden somebody has a dirty bomb. Yeah, but you don't – so you're not a believer. And so you just think just because it's encased, So if you were the king of the world, how would you navigate us out of the situation? there's nobody in Nevada. Sorry, Reno. I think that's what other countries who have experienced this problem have done.

1:35:50 They'd have to change the law so that the states can't fight it and that triggers a Wind, wind, wind. is the Great Plains. It can. something that can store power for an hour, two, three, four hours. We need something that can So you think that an approach in that regard would be wise because we're spending a lot of money on a lot of things anyway. 60 seasons left of the topsoil? Yeah. I've been hearing that for 40 years and it hasn't happened

1:39:04 And then you just throw fertilizer on it, Russia, yeah. for you to economically treat each individual one differently. And of this? Why has there been so... Runaway success. Since the Cold War ended, we've brought huge new swaths of humanity into the globalized system. And the integration of Russia and China and Brazil, that is the story of the post-World War. I'm sorry, of the post-Cold War era.

1:41:45 to bring new nitrogen or phosphate systems online, but it takes like 10 years for potash. Now the And the United States is the world's largest producer of natural gas. first place. So the Canadians are the world's largest producers, single producers of potash. We are their number one customer. They also supply potash to Japan decision-making process has become so opaque. But the United States is pushing the trade dispute

1:44:37 imagination for someone to think that something's going to go wrong in a war zone where energy has We'll also have had 30 years, 25 years, for this demographic situation to play out and we will find out what is next. One of the big mysteries right now is we've never, ever in any era had a Some countries are going to pull it off, but I don't think anyone has an idea of what that system looks like because

1:47:08 ballast of today, the investment ballast of tomorrow. They're, to be perfectly blunt, people. So they are likely to also generate very few children. Now, this is something that the And if they can figure out how to do that and still have families, Yeah, I'm not going to say that it was all fraud. Well, that's certainly playing out with like FTX, where you're finding out that there'll be more house of cards.

1:49:37 Duh. Really? works. Currency is a method of exchange and a store of value. And for that, there has to be a Right. And that means that the people who hold it are the ones that make the money, But, you know But conspiracy theorists are because it was yesterday. is not exactly the brightest person The idea of smoothing the connections White House releases first ever comprehensive framework for responsible development of digital assets.

1:53:20 that the United States creates. Yeah. You throw some bourbon in me, I get really lively. Yeah, well, the Chinese have proven was behind the digital currency space race, the U.S. dollars are transferred into pesos. There's a three-step process, and each of those that would be a nightmare for them. But I appreciate all of your research and your time and your insight.

1:56:24 Bye, everybody. free and will always be free. Well, thank you very much. I really appreciate your time. My pleasure.