Joe Rogan Experience #2010 — Marc Andreessen Transcript

Transcript

0:00 Joe Rogan Podcast, check it out! Yep. my terror of it is all the, we've ever experienced before. And that guy had come out and said that he thought that they were self-aware. That was a short amount of time. They're as good as the average doctor at this point at being a doctor. And I say I make the difference because the company that produces the AI determines what data goes into it, and that determines a lot of how it works and what it does or won't do.

2:33 The full version of these things are being trained on basically the sum total of human written expression. stories are in there. And then the new versions of these that are being built right now are what They already have very comprehensive knowledge of human affairs, but it's going to get very complete. There's no sort of being in there that you want it to sort of like explore,

4:47 oh, it's going to hit that. Okay. So what should I do? What should my plan be when the boat hits Like there's no it to think that. answers that people were posting where they would show the difference between the way it would well, let's just say, what would be the biases that are kind of inherent in the training data? So basically all of the sort of liberal kind of journalists basically have built up a corpus

7:19 Right. And so so I think if you if you just kind of look at this, you know, kind of with that framework, it's probably some of both. Okay. Big question. topic, what is News Nation? What is News Nation? I don't know what News Nation is. Do you know I'd make it real clunky. Do you know about ACRONYM? Yeah, yeah. and it might be a news story as if it was organic,

9:58 form of that is to astroturf the news itself. And then again, back to the training data thing, Senator Rubio, who's on the Senate Intelligence Committee and has all the clearances, gave an interview the other day where he went into quite a bit of detail. that doesn't mean anything to me. I want to see the fucking ship. And until then, Yeah. We were filming Fear Factor in California and I was out near Edwards Air Force Base and I got to see one fly overhead.

12:32 40 or 50 years ago. Yeah. Like, look at that thing. If you'd be like, they're coming. Oh my Do you have an opinion on that? By the way, there is a UFO right behind you. I want there to be unknowns. I think knowing that aliens do exist is just the beginning. Have they been here the whole time? Okay. So I'm going to call you. I'd play hide the ball. Aliens,

14:56 You know the Ryan Graves story? And then there was some pilots were encountering them with eyewitness accounts. Like wake up, wake up, wake up, the demon caused an issue. Is that bad? Well, here's the question though. Would aliens have a sense of humor? Would they be able to Even if they don't have a sense of humor, they can clearly see that these people are in a contest.

17:18 You're hoping that they understand these things. What would be the one thing that would be like, that's enough? Exactly. things you're working on i'm in yeah yeah me too i'm gonna drop my i need to i'm not telling nobody I'd feel a responsibility. should not like the military company shouldn't be the ones that have access to this only. crashed ufo i mean i'm sure it sounds silly because it's probably a real paper trail to

20:10 protecting the lab because they were working with these top secret materials that they recovered We got that ourselves. So that's domestic. Wild, right? dosing people with LSD. Wow. you've got these places. Why don't these smart, crazy people get together because what's the alternative? All of it? it and our solution is like basically like complete freedom um but but my point is like it's it's part and parcel

23:51 Most likely to be Chinese spies. Most likely to create new music. Most likely to create new art. Which is like equally crazy. Maybe Berkeley's ahead. Like step one is always am I on the fringe? Right. Step two is what does that mean? Like what form of the fringe, right? So what attracts somebody to be on the fringe? Like step one is always, am I on the fringe? Step two is what does that mean? Like what form of the fringe, right?

25:09 Of course. And it's just – it's part and parcel of the – it's sort of a package deal. I mean there's all kinds of stuff. cult from West Hollywood called the Buddha field that migrated out to Austin when they were being everybody with poison Kool-Aid in are older there's two sort of groupings there's the sort of 60s cults that are still kind of Oh, yeah.

27:33 And then more recently, there's a lot of this. and lots of group oriented. that are not compatible with the outside world And so they often end up with more women than men, And so the ideas will spread online, right? What you're saying resonates. Well, it's just if you take a historical perspective, it's just like, OK. basically came out of this. Okay, you would love this one.

30:55 And they were the ones to do the beads and the hair and, like, all the leather, like, all the hippie stuff. And it was a military intelligence op. Briefly, yeah. He's a fucking great guy. this is where they faked it. And so the theory goes basically – so there were three parts to the conspiracy theory. where their parents were like senior for nuclear war.

33:34 And so the theory is the hippie movement and rock and roll and the drug culture of the 60s was developed in order to basically sabotage the anti-war movement. naturally a bomb shelter. With the mushroom clouds. that we actually didn't have at the time. Okay, you'll love this. And by the way, a movie miniature. The car's right behind the house. That's insane.

35:50 The fucking car. Which again, I have no idea. You know what I'm saying? Right. Okay, there maybe the camera got it. Who can tell? like I was told it was true. it's not true the camera alone like this alone like yeah where is the phone phone? Well, where's that camera? There's shadows. What? Yeah. Kasparov has a theory that there are centuries that didn't happen.

39:03 various authorities over time who wanted to tell various stories about how long you know regimes had been in place or whatever Yes. How are they going to talk about what happened with weapons of mass destruction? You're talking about a nuclear blast. Oh, Sticking out of the bomb and through the ceiling. But you also know then you're dealing with people who are, let's say, really good at using mirrors, right?

41:46 I can't prove it. I mean, look, I think it was real. And that long lens here, wouldn't there be long enough to probably do that? I mean, I don't know if those are... Because it's not are you guys, is this on purpose? Terrific. They only't even notice the car. Terrific. So hopefully Jared's exploring his sub-basement at Lookout Mountain. That'd be even better than winning the Oscar.

44:11 Well, I mean, you can go deep with this stuff, right? and who should decide right who should charge. Who decides. Another interesting part of that is it's doing it, it's called probabilistically. So normally And so that's the basic function of what's happening. And so the early indications are it's building up what they call a world model sophisticated it gets about the material that it's processing. And so it starts to be able to do

46:58 new screenplays, original screenplays. Mathematically, if they're true, maybe it will know that. should be followed. ulterior motives. Yeah. So I, yeah, I call that my metaphor for this is the ring of power, right? they do that? And it's just like, well, because they could, right? Because they have the ring of What is Daniel Baldwin, it's one of these things where he said something that pissed somebody off.

49:44 The list gets fed through one of these bureaucracies. It comes out the other end And then basically they receive government funding, and then they do various levels of rights by limiting their use of social media? Has that been established? social media companies. And so they, you know, they pass and they have these working groups. I think there's no question that's the big fight for AI.

52:35 or more likely to avoid this sort of intervention? call those like right now the big four, at least in the US. And, you know, look, the, you know, building open source AIs. And those are coming out really fast now. There's like a new one every week that's coming out. And also they're trying to get open source banned. they could do all these dangerous things with it, right?

54:59 Or the microchip or the internet, right? It then, a lot of this is the staffing of the various government agencies. You know, open source, what would it be? Yeah. It would be that an AI that is uncontrolled can do, They'll help you figure out, you know, what, you know, how to, you know, they'll be capable of being your doctor and your lawyer and your coach and your advisor and your mentor and your teacher.

57:15 been saying. It's like, if you really, really wanted to train a bad and evil AI, you would a lot of that is to basically get it to not answer morally correct in doing that. And if, and you know, a lot of people think that they are, you AI that would have lied to you about, you know, the efficacy of surgical masks for a pandemic? what they were talking about. And those same people are going to be the ones that are making

1:00:13 And by the way, this is a very well-known problem. But it is amazing how much naivete there is by people who are pushing on this argument. Which is why they had to get bailed out, right? causing them to be smaller has actually achieved the exact opposite result. And what you see And my fear is that decisions will be made before they truly understand what they're

1:02:48 And then, by the way, just the term is so freighted. Trevor Burrus Has anybody invited you to come and speak the discussion happens. congressmen, senators, and they're very clearly seeing the questions And I think the smarter ones are generally aware of kind of how these things go. And then there's this rush thing, which is they're all kind of aware

1:04:52 where they kind of want it to happen between the American government and the American tech companies. and what that's going to mean for this new Cold War that we're in with China, it's a completely different conversation. I want to bring you back to what you're saying about the government and the tech companies. typically to fight that head on, but rather to try to sort of co-opt it. And this is where they

1:07:14 drug companies, banks, insurance companies, you know, right down the list, right? Where it's like And so we think we live in like a market-based economy. And so that's the underlying game that the big companies keep trying to play. right? Right now, the path that we're on is not good. Like this is what's playing out. open source AI gets really good

1:09:35 And, you know, you'll be able to use it for whatever you want, just like I will. serious threat and start applying, you know, just using whatever it is, whether it's mines or the various open source social media networks. Don't you think the government would somehow or another supposed to be running. Do you have basically an agent built into runs this kind of a I risk kind of world says clearly we should have military airstrikes on

1:12:14 It's what happens after AI gets too smarter than human intelligence. the word he's using, I think, is we need to be able to take the risk of nuclear war. You go down this path where you're worried about the AI getting out of control and you start advocating basically a global totalitarian basically surveillance state that watches everything and then basically takes military action when the computers are running software you don't want it to run.

1:13:32 Yeah, so in his kind of model of the world, Chad GPT proves that he was right all along and that we need to move today to – we need to shut down Chad GPT today and we need to never do anything like it again. AI risk or X risk or AI Yes. Yes. the AI safety movement that was worried about people dying has been hijacked by the people and they like call each other names all day long.

1:16:10 conflated. And so they sort of bait the hook with, it might kill everybody. And then what then you can do whatever it wants, one of the things that they say is basically anything smarter is always in charge of anything Number two, there's this anthropomorphizing thing that happens where you see him doing it in that essay. Like we're not dealing with –

1:18:32 It took the technical field completely by surprise that this works, right? And so it comes across to me more as a religion. this is the worry that it becomes capable of doing things. Okay. It's basically the argument of, well, you can't rule out that X is going to happen. And this is basically how science has always worked. And so we just, as human beings, we do not have a good track record of making decisions

1:21:49 Right. There's no— So let me, You see what you're doing? we would, in 25 years, know the scientific basis of human consciousness. We actually still have no idea. And it would be like, if that were the case, then we would have to think about that and study that. But like we don't have that. awareness of the world around it. It has a goal or an objective

1:25:03 that would have the characteristics that we're worried about. and then it goes into a state of physical relaxation, right, the way we know how to build neural networks today. And then again, you go back to this thing right? And that that threat is existential, right? Because it's going to be the super smart thing. Because he's called for a pause in AI.

1:27:07 So he read this literature on this topic about 10 years ago, and he got very concerned about this. if they replace us, they replace us. Like, they'll be our children. And like, we will have done the Elon's conclusion from that was not only is AI dangerous, specifically Google owning and controlling AI is specifically dangerous because Larry Page controls Google.

1:28:57 so that it's not just Google. This guy is freaked out and is like, wait a minute. If you think AI And then OpenAI basically went from being OpenAI to being ClosedAI. open AI to worry about and he's got Google to worry about. And so he has talked publicly about are once again like, Are we aware of what other countries, like what level they're at with this stuff?

1:31:47 countries that have this, but there are two, and they happen to be the two big ones. And so there And so the number one priority for Chinese leadership is always that the population of China stay under control and not revolt or expect to be able to vote or whatever. basically their whole society. And then they have a program to basically use AI for population

1:33:41 On top of the – yeah, basically on top of the other infrastructure. They're crazy. There's two very different visions for how technology should be used to order Union, right? There's two very different visions for how society should be ordered. There's two very different visions or photocopying machine, right? and we have them go out and sell it, right?

1:35:30 Either way, I see a scenario in 50 years. The whole concept of rights is a very Western thing, right? So the technology in the novel, 1984, was what Orwell called the telescreen, And in that book, what he did is he said, OK, we're going to use that same setup. And so that's the fundamental underlying question here as well, which is like is AI a tool to watch and control us or is AI a tool, something for us to use to become smarter, better informed, more capable, right?

1:38:32 The party owns and controls the state. ability to come grab you out of meetings and sit you down and, you know, tell you whatever you want, Like there's no court, there's no, you know, the concept of like a FISA warrant, use your drone for surveillance? Can they use, you know, can they see what you're watching on we need a separation of the government and from companies.

1:41:13 You can have an actual argument over it. In the U.S., we have written constitutional – give me an example of free speech. Right? is because it's another one of these where they're like, you're like, whoa. Michelle Obama's a man, like all that kind of stuff. It doesn't make any sense. But I like that. are you a real human? He wants all identity to be validated, verified online.

1:44:15 Really? argument, which is like, okay, like if somebody is not willing to put their own name behind Right. Like, yeah, and the genius of the American system is, yeah, like, say what you want, right? you make up on the service. You'll just have to register that behind the scenes with your Like if you want to upload videos, YouTube is the primary marketplace for that.

1:47:13 And Brett Weinstein? I say very, you say sort of dominant market positions like that does, that should bring an additional level of scrutiny on conduct. And then there is this other thing I mentioned And then all of this stuff I was talking about earlier, all the channeling of all the money from the government that's gone into these pro-censorship groups, right, that are actively working to try to suppress speech.

1:48:47 that is, I think, certainly illegal. just in the Twitter files that have come out. years. You need a political – you need the political force of will and desire to investigate and prosecute crimes. And there's a lot of money involved in that. Do you think most people are even aware of all these issues though? But will it be too late? Well, you're completely making sense, especially when you think about what they've done with social media and not even speculation, just the Twitter files.

1:52:30 all the existence of the Supreme Court and the due process protections in the Constitution, But they saw the threat. Well, and when the speech is made, right, to justify whatever the controls are, it's going to be made in our name, right? And that's already started. Like if you look at the public statements coming out of D.C. already, like that is the thrust of it.

1:53:59 And it's the same. So here's the white pill. but basically any religion, you go kind of right down the list. And then it just sort of – this sort of downward slide. The two that are like the lowest and have had the biggest drops are Congress and journalism. But faith in your local congressperson pulls it like 90 percent. Right. But anyway, the reason for optimism in there is I think most people are off the train already.

1:57:26 goes, like, what you're saying today, I didn't know that's how it worked. Oh, this is what we Before that, actually, in the 50s, it was paperback books. A lot of alternate of centralization and control right around 1950, right? and then all the computer and, right, continue right and this is the significance and what if it has the ability to basically say

1:59:56 Are you open-minded and just sort of just analyzing the data as it presents itself currently and not making judgments about where You know, they have visions Apple alone just passed the entire value So it's the comparison, I think, And so I – and so it's why I can kind of – I can see the future kind of in that sense, which is I know what they're going to do because they come in and tell us and then we help them try to do it.

2:02:16 good. And in the last 15, 20 years, like it's gotten these, all these topics have gotten very are they receptive? mean, they're trying to outlaw crypto right now. They're trying to like do all kinds of stuff. Like there's a lot of – there's a very large amount of rage in the system. it's like anything else in life. You sit down with one person and like, you're in, they just

2:04:55 And so there's a fair number of people who would be our natural allies if not for the fact that Silicon Valley is like 99% democrat. That one's a hard one. I mean, that I don't know. That seems – people – the last thing I want to do is argue to people, especially But yeah, it goes back to people have to decide what they want. here's the other thing.

2:06:16 until the internet showed up. these big, important topics. It's just people are always so scared of change and change today. Yeah. I do enjoy it. is the new thing is just how the world always worked. If you're between the ages of 15 and 35, It's true in movies, video games. Right. He's doing full MMA. He's doing full Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He's doing full MMA.

2:09:22 And he loves it. the Douglas Adams thing. amazing thing that I'm going to give you. This is like the most important thing I've ever done And I was like, why aren't you impressed? Right. whether it's a medical decision or whether it's a mechanical thing with your car, And you can actually get it. you've got a stuffed animal over here and a stuffed animal over there and it wiggles. And

2:12:12 In theory, there's a tool that will tell you whether they got it from GPT, Very strange, right? Well, in the world of very tiny things like atoms and particles, This is called tunneling. I mean, it's one of the most promising things ever, fear is that what human beings are doing with artificial intelligence is creating something This is like the fear of, yeah, the non-human.

2:14:11 monster. Right. Right. Same thing. Um, so there's always this, yeah, there's always the, and look, Right. I mean, look, human population is like up, you know, It's not part of the beauty of this is that there's danger. So this concept of like the word, which is sort of knowledge, right? And then in Adam and Eve, it was Adam and Eve eating from the tree of knowledge, right?

2:16:05 so the myth that the Christians have the Prometheus myth, And he took fire from the gods and he brought it down and gave it to humanity. You can stay warm at night. even fire was so scary that they encoded it that deeply in their mythology. And so I think what we do is we just like play that exactly like you said, we play that It's so interesting because that conversation is never had.

2:18:49 I don't mind like somebody who's like there's this concept I talk about the the the the Baptist and the bootleggers. working behind the scenes to achieve, you to achieve basically self-interested ends. And you can't deny that just what ChatGPT can do right now is extraordinary and very beneficial. Go to Twitter. but go to that image, the shoe right there.

2:21:26 And Chihuly is famous for using lots of colors. And so it's an avocado made out of stained glass. So the way that it worked was it basically ran this algorithm that basically it used the prompt There's a newer version of Midjourney, a turbo version that just came out where I think it cuts it down to a couple seconds. um the same thing is true of writing a medical diagnosis the same thing is true of you know

2:24:34 We do not have a machine that can pack your suitcase. So the computer is going to be able to pick strawberries you know what shape how does the suitcase unclasp suitcases unclasp differently like all the yes all Well, that's Andrew Yang's take on automation, right? the price on all of those things is about to drop created that will basically take the place of the jobs that got destroyed. But what you'll experience

2:27:21 but that the intellectual work, So I think this is going to be a very big fight. is what in copyright law is called the right to make transformative works. every all the art picasso did and as long as you don't misrepresent it as being a picasso you can Right, but if you're not generating income from it? And so the algorithm produced an homage, be the way to think about it.

2:30:25 They will just tell you. tone here angry or like hostile? And you can tell it to rewrite news articles to take out the bias. People, when they encounter objective information like objective news, they're always going to look for someone who has an analysis of that news. Right. It'll do that. But here's another thing it'll do is you can tell it to write in the style

2:32:32 You can do the same thing for, you know, authority figures. What a bizarre new world we're in the middle of right now. Wow. Yeah. People who have had, you know, who have been paraplegics or quadriplegics being able to It's the field that's moving pretty quickly at this point. They're figuring out how – people claim to now know how to do a brain scan and be able to pull out basically the image that you're thinking of as an image.

2:36:09 So the claim here is that those would be the original images on top. is this is this real right is it like the samsung moonshot yeah does it yeah does it you know does Exactly. Oh, yeah. I think there's actually something even deeper. Yeah. you know, your serotonin or your whatever, uh, oxytocin levels were high. Serotonin levels are Right. They'll have basically a partner that'll be with them whose goal in life will be to make them as happy and satisfied and successful as possible.

2:39:32 a way to avoid the pitfalls of the censorship