Joe Rogan Experience #2117 — Ray Kurzweil Transcript

Transcript

0:00 The Joe Rogan Experience. I wear them every day. Yeah. But the reason why I'm asking is because you're you know basically a technologist Interesting. Well, that's true. That was the first one, yeah. It wasn't as good, but it's the first time that that had been done. that what essentially they're doing is they're, So you're essentially in one way or another, you're kind of taking from the art.

4:28 Mid-journey is incredibly impressive. It's so quick. If it's playing a game like Go, it's going to play it better than any human. Arthur, we're not quite there, but we will be there. And in fact, Stanford had a conference, they invited several hundred people from around That's exactly right. Yeah, it's in the book. Jamie already has it. The last point is 35 billion calculations per second.

8:58 okay, next year we have to get to here and people would try to match that. We didn't even know this was happening for 40 years. And it's also true of other things, like, for example, getting energy from the sun. The function of, because what I had understood was that there was a bottleneck in the technology And if you look at the curve, we'll be getting 100% of all the energy we need in 10 years.

11:52 The concept was like could you make a solar paneled car, a car that has solar panels on the roof, So, you wouldn't just be able to drive indefinitely on solar power. So what are they going to do with all these nuclear plants and coal power plants and all Yeah. Are we? Is the bottleneck a battery technology and how how close are they to? I didn't imagine that computation would grow like this.

15:13 And that was very much a surprise to everybody. What we don't know now is for the language models to say they don't know something. Really? That's interesting. But these models are not – we don't know everything. And it has to, we have to be able to scan an answer So if it has to answer questions about that, it would just come up with an answer. usually correct.

18:32 and that's a large way in which it will make things up because it's learning from people. Right. So right now, if somebody has access to a good search engine, they will check before based on social norms or whatever the culture is This is not enough data to be able to store everything. This is not enough data to be able to store everything correct way to talk about this. It does know language, but there's a lot of other things

22:00 We then tested it with people. right and And what if, if, if artificial intelligence is still prone to hallucinations and they and actually test it with people. like inside of 20 years? about four months. So you lose a year but through scientific progress you're You'll get back. I mean, you could have a 10 year old and you could compute that he's got many decades of

26:32 Well, I'm trying to get to the point where we have longevity escape velocity in good No. That's great. But what about how AI is going to change society? If I ask you to do something, you've got to kind of mess with it. You shut it off. year. That's pretty comparable to what the human brain does. And this is going to basically make us smarter. In what way?

31:27 It's going to be a few years. comes to great change. Right. We're the only animal that actually creates technology. Yeah, it's a combination of our brain and something else So we can create tools, and that's really part of who we are. Constant dollars in relation to the inflation? No, it is taking. I wonder if like how much more we're purchasing and creating.

35:26 Because you wouldn't have, I mean, you wouldn't have a computer, for example. Right. had at least one hospital visit something's gone wrong broken arm broken They're treating disease or excuse me age as is as it's as if it is a disease not just inevitable Will we integrate before that takes place? People would never accept that. all jobs are going to go away

39:11 And there's probably some technologies down the pipe that are going to have a similar What I think is that human beings are some sort of a biological caterpillar that makes of doing and capable of traveling anywhere, not having any biological limitations in type deal, something along those lines. Tyler Perry owns and he was building an $800 million television studio and he stopped

41:51 But would you want to get rid of that? Following several people enjoying the beautiful snowy weather and shopping at nearby stalls gorgeous Sakura petals are flying through the wind Yeah, and it's going to get better. And you imagine what it was like five years ago, But my kids tell me that's a real problem in school now. 5 is supposed to be the massive leap.

44:08 I mean, so you're looking at a God in 50 years. that we have in terms of energy storage, data storage, You think that's going to happen? captured is what comes with our body originally. or any kind of electronics, it's backed up. Like, if you can back someone up, could you duplicate it? Let's talk to San Francisco Ray. You can't just create a medication and sell it to people that cares its disease.

47:50 Certainly if we multiply our intelligence a million fold Well, we have it now. and actually put things into your brain it's advertised to do. Like if actually know some people like this who were active people It's fairly slow though. When you say 2045, what is the source of that estimation? So if you follow the current graph of progress, It's hard to know what people would say,

51:56 I want to be stupid like human beings used to be. Right. disinformation and propaganda. There's so many different factors that are at play now of people. For now. Right. Do you remember those things where they tell kids to get under the desk? makes them significantly more dangerous. Right. artificial general intelligence the other one doesn't. How Is it neck and neck?

56:54 It's not like somebody can just capitalize on a way to do it and nobody else understands I mean, we're actually way ahead of China, I would say. So when it first gets implemented, that's the big problem is before it exists, before Are you worried about that at all? And I've got a chapter in the book about perils that are what's the likelihood that we're gonna go another 80 years

1:00:20 And I think there's actually some message there. Obviously we did drop bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. We did. looking at a completely dystopian world. up for? through these cycles of life, what if you're stepping in artificially denying that? a great musician and he created fantastic music, but he hasn't done that since It's in the book. It seems pretty feasible.

1:04:20 live past 90, it's like, okay, are you alive now? Do you like being alive now? What's the want to take their lives. causing great depression, what is causing anxiety, what is causing a lot of these schizophrenic we can mitigate that with technology? this technology would not just live happily but also be productive and also contribute How safe is this? Especially when it's implemented with some sort of weapons technology, you know, or some sort of a military application,

1:07:36 As long as it's a legitimate democracy, it's not controlled by the military industrial we've seen politicians do? would be loving everybody. We'd be interacting with each other. Well, that's the point of doing this. Just for starters, if you could actually live longer, quite aside from the motivations of And maybe that exists to comfort us because we deal with existential angst and the reality

1:10:44 There was no evidence, right? And are we monkeying with that stage Like, what? It's a natural human instinct. Would it be the same thing? How far away are we from that? And we're actually very close now to what our brain can do with these large language It's not a thousand years. What about large language models? You have, you have- And we just like a person, and we'll also have our physical bodies as well, and that'll

1:15:59 Yeah. Right, well that's where we're headed. Which is going to be very strange like what will human beings look like if you give people the ability to manipulate your physical form we do You're taller, you're stronger, you're smarter, as to what we are now. Yeah, I would discriminate against six armed people that can fly. And I don't think it's going to be as simple as, you know, it's going to be Ray Kurzweil,

1:19:25 Sure. If you want to look at it in a binary fashion, positive and negative, but it's also going When you think about the implementation of this technology to its fullest, what does world looks like with the full implementation of the kind of exponential Chester cost created a constitutional amendment I didn't want to spell that out. Well, it shows you the benefit that she has it, and if everybody gets it, that would be

1:23:10 Yeah, for sure. I mean, in my... Now, if you listen to people debating presidential politics, they'll say crime is worse than ever. But if you look at the actual statistics, it's gone way down. things generally always seem to be moving in a better direction. I mean, look at the technology. already happened? And maybe we don't have the capability to actually see it.

1:27:35 But maybe there's something that's like 10 years, maybe there's an industrial age. What if they're at the level that we're at? Things would affect whole galaxies like what things like we're doing are we affecting the whole galaxy? War is not the primary thing that we are motivated by. Right. But if it gets to the point where artificial intelligence is no longer stimulated by mere

1:30:36 step in and put a stop to all that, will we also put a stop to our ambition? If it was infinitely intelligent, why would it even want to physically go anywhere? If we create a sentient artificial intelligence that's And then why would it have any ambition at all to travel? I wouldn't necessarily say that they're flaws. All these thefts are fraud. I'm saying that it's the root of these flaws.

1:33:13 I mean as I think about myself now, it's when I have emotions that are positive emotions, like really getting off on a song I'm not even saying it's wrong. Mm-hmm. There's a lot of that though. There's a lot of that. And if you looked at greed and war And actually, if you look at what human beings have done already, we're moving in that direction. and it's feasible.

1:36:28 enough hydrogen weapons to wipe out all humanity. But what I'm getting at is like, And we're actually working on that, and that's going to go into high gear very soon. need this. but it's not really... working towards the same goal. I mean, anyone who has a significant technology. significant technology. Actually it has pretty good technology already. You can't really

1:39:57 The security people that really understand the capabilities of intelligence agencies, You can keep privacy from me But the privacy that we have today is far less than the privacy that we had before we But now your phone hears that. That thing is just a net scooping up information. Because that's what, like a company like Google, for instance, that's where they make the majority

1:42:59 No. With the Pegasus program, it's very easy. Yes, but... an intelligence program, But if we did, well there are some phones that likes graphene as soon as you're using GPS, you're easy to find, right? So you lose that privacy. They on phones. But you can't opt out of it unless you just decide to get a flip phone. that you would have with not having access

1:46:21 People could be reading your emails all the time. from being able to essentially access the thing that is Like what does that look like? for a universal language? I mean, all languages that we have were created. Yeah. Yeah. There's different ways that people say things. If you're creating something... If we decided to make a better version of technology through artificial technology and

1:50:29 which I don't think is good for us as human beings. and so on. What are your thoughts on simulation theory? Generally, if you say we're living in a simulation, If we can, and we're on our way to creating something that is indiscernible from reality How beautiful it is and how incredible and what the capabilities are. So if you live in that, that's kind of a simulation.

1:55:02 In a way, yeah. And if you were some sort of an alien life form, wouldn't that be the way you go, It just does it through technology and maybe Well, there's definitely no real evidence that we see other than these people that talk Rover, rolling around, satellites, and orbit. life and enjoying it. energy can get out of a black hole, and therefore we don't really know what's going on in it and we call it a singularity

1:59:25 what would it be like if you were to evolve So it's just who knows? and we'll be able to think about things that we can't even imagine today. And you've dedicated your whole life to this. No. Just get AI to do it. Why waste all that time sitting around doing it basically It's a fake voice message. That's ridiculous. You know, talking about how he's marrying his

2:02:14 Well, certainly that's going to be feasible. Whether it's feasible now to get all the nuances I think I'm and thank you for this book